DanieleTrader

Dear readers and followers, today i would like to share my analysis of the TLT and what they might be telling to the markets. My discipline includes both technical and fundamental analysis connected according to my understanding of what is relevant to discuss. Figure 1 show the weekly chart of the TLT (American 20+ Treasury Bonds). What the long term chart shows is the so called, "Bond Rally", it has been continuing for decades and it doesn't show any sign of stopping. Will it continue into negative rates? Probably yes in a few decades or more likely during the next recession. Figure 1: TLT weekly chart The function of the treasury yield could be interpreted as the projection of the future long term growth. When the TLT market value increases it means that the treasury yields for the 20+ years certificates have been decreasing. There are two interesting observations that can be done about the behavior of the TLT ETF stocks performance: 1) The g...

January 2020 (Monthly Report) Dear Copiers and Followers, we started the year 2020, (more precisely the last week!), with a spike of volatility that reduced our monthly profit from above 3% to about - 0,8% in a matter of 6 hours. The reason of this drop is the aggressive investment of part of the cash we produced cashing the profits generated from our stocks into VXX with an aggressive move in order to take advantage of the spike in volatility. Figure 1 shows the structure of the portfolio we are using to begin the month of Feb. with record low stock holding (about 33%) and record high ETFs holding composed by defensive and a large part of VXX, the ETF which tracks the VIX available on eToro. Figure 1: PortFolio structure 31/01/2020 Despite the drop, I think that the portfolio is well positioned and will generate good returns as soon as the panic on Wall-street begins to fade and the VIX begin to fall back. In a previous technical analysis of the SP500 and the Nasqu...