Monthly Report (April, 2020)

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April's month back to profit.


Dear Copier and Followers,

After the last week of February and the first two weeks of March, our portfolio rich on very volatile titles fell to what I believe is our Portfolio's bottom and started to recover.

We completed the month of April with a profit slightly above 14%, the lose from the beginning of the year is about 41%.

Figure 1 shows the structure of the Portfolio that will begin the trading month of May.


Figure 1: PortFolio composition


The stocks composition is still quit low since I believe the run up was a bit too fast and the market will need some time to consolidate and digest the gains. If you want to read more of my opinion on this subject you can read my recent entry on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq analysis (24.04.2020).

There is a new entry on our PortFolio which is the currencies, I normally don't trade currency pairs but due the very special situation we are observing I was compelled to begin trading the pair USDNOK, this allows us to get a relatively safe exposure to:

1) the Oil glut on market
2) the very strong performance of the USD as a "safety play"

The NOK (Norwegian Krone) is a currency particularly sensitive to the Oil prices so it was particularly attached by both a weak oil market price and a strong dollar, this makes it a very attractive strategy to expose ourselves to both oil prices and strong dollar and play the recovery of both the oil prices and the gradual weakening of the dollar which I expect to happen gradually as the global economic situation bottom and begins to recover during the next months.

On figure 2, you can see more details on what the ETF's section is composed of.


Figure 2: ETF composition

 As you can see the ETFs contain mostly defensive stocks such as GDXJ (Gold miners) that are poised to gain from the increasing gold prices expected in the future also due to the economic weakness that will likely follow the COIVD-19 recovery and the very high levels of printed money that the central banks are injecting into the global economy to prevent economic devastation.

TLT are also a good way to protect the portfolio from market down turns, the FED is likely to keep expanding it's QE program and keep buy treasuries lowering the yields and increasing the value of TLT over a long period of time, as they also remarked again just a few days ago.

So the portfolio is structured to sustain a period of market uncertainty and will try to focus on some selected volatile assets that can benefit during periods of economic slow down and less on stocks which will remain to about 25% of our portfolio until after summer, most likely.

The high volatility that is here to stay for many months is likely to benefit our strategy of trading but i expect that also our PortFolio will be rather volatile during the next months, please bear this period with me.

I thank my Copiers and Followers for the confidence and I wish you a great time moving forward.

Daniele



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The graphs and prices shown in this analysis were taken using as a source www.etoro.com, the platform I am using for my trading as DanieleTrader.
Whoever is interested to follow my trading activity there is welcome to subscribe to the platform using the following link and follow me or Copy-Trade my activity:

Link to Subscribe to eToro Platform


Disclaimer

The content published in this blog represents my personal view.
It is intended for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
The reader is solely responsible for his/her investment choices.




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