DanieleTrader

August (2020), fifth profitable month in a row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce that we have completed the fifth month in a row in profits. The month of July concluded with 2.43% of profits. This third trading quarter is so far at 6,27%. The Risk Factor seems stable at an average of 3 and maximum value of 4, when times with some volatility will come I will try to increase it to an average of 4/5 in order to take full advantage of the possible profits available. Figure 1: portfolio structure This month we tried to be trade without daring too much because this period is typically not the best period for stocks. Although the last kept grounding higher, we are reaching values that seem a bit too extreme, so we kept gradually increasing defensive assets, in particular TLT (American long term treasuries), which now are the largest ETF asset in the portoflio, followed by GDXJ, as you can see from Figure 2.       The Vix seems to have bottomed during the last week...

  Technical Analysis Dear followers and copiers, over two months have past from my last Gold updated version of my technical analysis, I think it is time to take a new look at the charts and technical indicators to analyze what's happening to the gold prices and try to figure out how to trade it. The long term view posted in the last entry is more or less unchanged since my last analysis. The uptrend looks still intact and probably 2500$ is the next long term target. Medium Term View During the last two years, after the temporary bottom printed from the Gold Spot prices around mid August 2018 at around 1600$, the market value of this commodity began to rise within a rising channel delimited from the two ascending violet lines drew on Figure 1. Lately the trend actually accelerated breaking out of the growth channel further accelerating toward the latest weeks, and printing a decade all time high. Figure 1: Gold Spot (weekly chart) In the mediu...

July (2020), fourth profitable month in a row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce that we have completed the fourth month in a row in profits. The month of July concluded with about 3,75% of profits. We continued to work to stabilize the Risk Factor which now is back to an average of 3 and maximum value of 4. Figure 1: PortFolio Composition   This month we tried to be rather aggressive, we moved to from record of about 40% cash to a very low level of 6% within a few weeks, then we started to move out again from some trades locking in some good profits. The market seems to begin giving signs of euphoria, partly justified from the blowout quarterly reports of the big tech companies, anyway many issues are still on the horizon from the exploding small corporate debts, to the presidential elections, Brexit and the development of Covid. Figure 2: ETFs structure (mostly defensive) It's easy to predict that the volatility will continue to ...

June (2020), third profitable month in row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to have completed the third month in a row of profits. The month of June concluded with about 3,5% profits. We continued to stabilize the Risk Factor which now is back to an average of 4. During the middle of the month about a week ago we went nearly all in with investments, then successfully exit a large amount of our positions going back to a 21% cash position (Figure 1). Figure 1: Capital Allocation 1/07/2020 The month of July is seasonally a weak month for stock trading and usually as the traders say on summer months such as July "cash is king". This means that we will trade stocks on very light volumes and we will seek to reduce further our expose during this summer increasing further our cash positions and treasuries (TLT, IEF and WHY) in preparation for a likely correction. We will also look to take advantage of a probable new rally for the gold and the gold miners. ...

May (2020), a good month of consolidation Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce the second month in row of profits, slightly above 2%, and that's a good news in my opinion because it confirms that the new structure of the portfolio helped to stabilize performances and reduce the Risk Factor that has now fallen back to 5 on average for the month. Moving forward I am planning to keep the risk factor to 4/5, with a max of 6, until the end of 2020 in order to capture a big amount of volatility that will most likely be present in the markets for the next 12 months. The VIX have been converging to a value slightly above 25 during the latest period, and summer won't probably push it much lower. A very good environment for our type of diversified portfolio. Figure 1 shows the structure of our portfolio for the beginning of June. Figure 1: overview on PortFolio structure The percentage occupied by stocks increased, but actually only because we increased...

Technical Analysis Dear followers and copiers, nearly two months have past from my last Gold updated version of my technical analysis, I think it is time to take a new look at the charts and technical indicators to analyze what's happening to the gold prices and try to find out how to trade it. In the entry of the beginning of April I offered a short analysis of the Long Term View of what happened in the gold during the last years and gave some analysis of what to expect from the Gold Spot prices depending on how the market of this commodity moved. It seems that most of what i wrote in that post is still valid for the long  and medium terms. Here you can read it Gold Analysis (5 April) Medium Term View During the last two years, after the temporary bottom printed from the Gold Spot prices around mid August 2018 at around 1600$, the market value of this commodity began to rise within a rising channel delimited from the two ascending violet lines drew ...

April's month back to profit. Dear Copier and Followers, After the last week of February and the first two weeks of March, our portfolio rich on very volatile titles fell to what I believe is our Portfolio's bottom and started to recover. We completed the month of April with a profit slightly above 14%, the lose from the beginning of the year is about 41%. Figure 1 shows the structure of the Portfolio that will begin the trading month of May. Figure 1: PortFolio composition The stocks composition is still quit low since I believe the run up was a bit too fast and the market will need some time to consolidate and digest the gains. If you want to read more of my opinion on this subject you can read my recent entry on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq analysis (24.04.2020). There is a new entry on our PortFolio which is the currencies, I normally don't trade currency pairs but due the very special situation we are observing I was compelled to begin trading the pair ...