DanieleTrader

  I quarter (2021), a quarter of correction and consolidation Dear Copier and Followers, we began the first quarter of the 2021, with a long and relatively frustrating period of consolidation and correction, we recorded a 5.9% decline, which in my opinion is a good opportunity to increase the copy amount because I expect this to be the bottom quarter for our Portfolio for the year 2021. The stock component of our PortFolio are on prevalence composed by technology assets. Even though this assets class is predicted to under perform cyclical and industrial assets, I like to trade their higher volatility. On this regard this is actually the best period to trade them with a high turn over and take advantage of a VXN above 25 on a regular basis. We have stored a significant amount of cash, about 30% of the portfolio that will be used if a good opportunity will occur and to quickly rotate capitals in and out of assets.   What went down? All of what could be defined as hedge assets: T...

  January (2021), first month of the first Quarter 2021   Dear Copier and Followers, a new very interesting year is beginning with probably a higher degree of volatility than the average of the last years. Our strategy is studied to take advantage of that through very volatile instruments such as TQQQ, GDXJ and one of the most volatile among the defensive assets TLT. Figure 1 shows how we were positioned by end of January. January was a consolidation month for Gold and TLT, while stocks kept rising at a moderate pace, the month ended with a -1,32% but our strategic positioning is preparing for a pool back of the market that should give us a good chance to increase again our stocks positions and gain during the rest of the Quarter.    Figure 1: Portfolio structure   The ETFs remain the largest component of the PortFolio, on Figure 2, you can analyze the major components of it. Figure 2: ETF structure The major component is TLT, which has been consolidating for th...

  December (2020), last month of the last Quarter of the 2020   Dear Copier and Followers, the challenging trading year of 2020 has finally ended. We completed the last quarter of the year with a gain of 10,6%. The summary of the quarterly report is: - 1st Quarter  - 48.4% a big loss due to the Covid and Oil historical collapse. - 2nd Quarter  21% of profit - 3rd Quarter  3.9% of Profit - 4th Quarter 7,8% of Profit   Total result for the year about 30% of loss.     What went wrong during the first Quarter? In one word my inexperience with the limitations that eToro requests a Popupar Investor to respect.   I have never experience a situation where a very fast and big collapse in so many assets from Oil and Stocks to Bonds and even Gold happened at the same.   I considered the huge spike a great shopping opportunity, and that was a correct call but it only increased further our portfolio Risk Factor.   The unusually high volatility p...

  November (2020), second month of the last Quarter, 2020   Dear Copier and Followers, the month of November was the month where we collected some of the fruits of the work done during the last two months of consolidation. We closed this month with almost 9% profit for the month which brings the intermediate profit for the fourth quarter of our trading to about 6.2% of profits . The gold and TLT (ETF that trades long term American Bond Treasuries), continued their decline during this month. For this reason we kept slowly increasing our positions on these defensive assets in preparation of a pool back or correction that could happen any time during the next weeks or months. On the other front we aggressively traded strong growth stocks such as Tesla, Ba (which might be close to its consolidation phase completion), financials such as JPM, etc. Figure 1 shows the structure of our Portfolio at the beginning of Dec.   Figure 1: Portfolio end of October The ETFs occupy still t...

  October (2020), first month in the last Quarter   Dear Copier and Followers, the interesting month of October ended, unfortunately the last few days of this month trading coincided with the per-election typical correction which reduced the gains to a negative 2.51%. It's just a temporary effect though. All in all, I believe we worked well during October, we increased our holding of safety assets such as TLT that have been correcting for most of the last 3 months and they are probably close to their temporary bottom. Same goes for gold and gold miners that have been correcting more or less for the same amount of time, that's due to the fact that they are deeply connected and both connected with the Fed actions.  We slightly increased our gold miners holding to position in preparation for what I expect to be a new upward run of the gold that might be beginning soon, maybe it's actually began the day I am writing this blog post, maybe it will take a few more months. Very d...

  September (2020), first month in the last six months in red Dear Copier and Followers, the typically difficult September month ended with a loss of 2,22% in a month rather volatile and during which our Portfolio has been consolidating through the first actual Nasdaq correction since the March/April oil/Covid caused collapse. We completed our third trading quarter of 2020 with a 3.91% profit, with a risk factor at an average of 3 with maximum of 4. Considering how complicated this quarter was I feel that this is a positive result. The TLT we own produced very limited protection to the stock correction, which indicates that the FED is stealthily suspended its balance sheet expansion in order to gain some extra ammunition to use if the situation deteriorates further.   Trump is ill with Covid-19, how will this impact the stock markets and the presidential? Hard to say, we will try to be ready for whatever comes our way during the next weeks. Figure 1 shows the structure of our ...

  Technical Analysis Dear followers and copiers, over two months have past from my last Gold updated version of my technical analysis, I think it is time to take a new look at the charts and technical indicators to analyze what's happening to the gold prices. Medium Term View   In my previous entry posted around the first week of August, i predicted that after the nice run up of the gold, due to the over-bought conditions shown from the very high RSI values, the gold would most likely enter a consolidation period. You can read my entry at this link:  Gold Analysis (8, August 2020)       Figure 1: Gold Spot Daily Chart (from eToro.com) On Figure 1 can be observed that just a few days after the post, the gold spot prices begin to fall in order to consolidate and reduce the value of RSI to a more sustainable level.   A support around level 1850$ was created, if it hold for a few weeks, might become the level from which the gold prices will attempt to reac...

August (2020), fifth profitable month in a row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce that we have completed the fifth month in a row in profits. The month of July concluded with 2.43% of profits. This third trading quarter is so far at 6,27%. The Risk Factor seems stable at an average of 3 and maximum value of 4, when times with some volatility will come I will try to increase it to an average of 4/5 in order to take full advantage of the possible profits available. Figure 1: portfolio structure This month we tried to be trade without daring too much because this period is typically not the best period for stocks. Although the last kept grounding higher, we are reaching values that seem a bit too extreme, so we kept gradually increasing defensive assets, in particular TLT (American long term treasuries), which now are the largest ETF asset in the portoflio, followed by GDXJ, as you can see from Figure 2.       The Vix seems to have bottomed during the last week...

  Technical Analysis Dear followers and copiers, over two months have past from my last Gold updated version of my technical analysis, I think it is time to take a new look at the charts and technical indicators to analyze what's happening to the gold prices and try to figure out how to trade it. The long term view posted in the last entry is more or less unchanged since my last analysis. The uptrend looks still intact and probably 2500$ is the next long term target. Medium Term View During the last two years, after the temporary bottom printed from the Gold Spot prices around mid August 2018 at around 1600$, the market value of this commodity began to rise within a rising channel delimited from the two ascending violet lines drew on Figure 1. Lately the trend actually accelerated breaking out of the growth channel further accelerating toward the latest weeks, and printing a decade all time high. Figure 1: Gold Spot (weekly chart) In the mediu...

July (2020), fourth profitable month in a row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce that we have completed the fourth month in a row in profits. The month of July concluded with about 3,75% of profits. We continued to work to stabilize the Risk Factor which now is back to an average of 3 and maximum value of 4. Figure 1: PortFolio Composition   This month we tried to be rather aggressive, we moved to from record of about 40% cash to a very low level of 6% within a few weeks, then we started to move out again from some trades locking in some good profits. The market seems to begin giving signs of euphoria, partly justified from the blowout quarterly reports of the big tech companies, anyway many issues are still on the horizon from the exploding small corporate debts, to the presidential elections, Brexit and the development of Covid. Figure 2: ETFs structure (mostly defensive) It's easy to predict that the volatility will continue to ...

June (2020), third profitable month in row Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to have completed the third month in a row of profits. The month of June concluded with about 3,5% profits. We continued to stabilize the Risk Factor which now is back to an average of 4. During the middle of the month about a week ago we went nearly all in with investments, then successfully exit a large amount of our positions going back to a 21% cash position (Figure 1). Figure 1: Capital Allocation 1/07/2020 The month of July is seasonally a weak month for stock trading and usually as the traders say on summer months such as July "cash is king". This means that we will trade stocks on very light volumes and we will seek to reduce further our expose during this summer increasing further our cash positions and treasuries (TLT, IEF and WHY) in preparation for a likely correction. We will also look to take advantage of a probable new rally for the gold and the gold miners. ...

May (2020), a good month of consolidation Dear Copier and Followers, I am glad to announce the second month in row of profits, slightly above 2%, and that's a good news in my opinion because it confirms that the new structure of the portfolio helped to stabilize performances and reduce the Risk Factor that has now fallen back to 5 on average for the month. Moving forward I am planning to keep the risk factor to 4/5, with a max of 6, until the end of 2020 in order to capture a big amount of volatility that will most likely be present in the markets for the next 12 months. The VIX have been converging to a value slightly above 25 during the latest period, and summer won't probably push it much lower. A very good environment for our type of diversified portfolio. Figure 1 shows the structure of our portfolio for the beginning of June. Figure 1: overview on PortFolio structure The percentage occupied by stocks increased, but actually only because we increased...

Technical Analysis Dear followers and copiers, nearly two months have past from my last Gold updated version of my technical analysis, I think it is time to take a new look at the charts and technical indicators to analyze what's happening to the gold prices and try to find out how to trade it. In the entry of the beginning of April I offered a short analysis of the Long Term View of what happened in the gold during the last years and gave some analysis of what to expect from the Gold Spot prices depending on how the market of this commodity moved. It seems that most of what i wrote in that post is still valid for the long  and medium terms. Here you can read it Gold Analysis (5 April) Medium Term View During the last two years, after the temporary bottom printed from the Gold Spot prices around mid August 2018 at around 1600$, the market value of this commodity began to rise within a rising channel delimited from the two ascending violet lines drew ...

April's month back to profit. Dear Copier and Followers, After the last week of February and the first two weeks of March, our portfolio rich on very volatile titles fell to what I believe is our Portfolio's bottom and started to recover. We completed the month of April with a profit slightly above 14%, the lose from the beginning of the year is about 41%. Figure 1 shows the structure of the Portfolio that will begin the trading month of May. Figure 1: PortFolio composition The stocks composition is still quit low since I believe the run up was a bit too fast and the market will need some time to consolidate and digest the gains. If you want to read more of my opinion on this subject you can read my recent entry on the Nasdaq here: Nasdaq analysis (24.04.2020). There is a new entry on our PortFolio which is the currencies, I normally don't trade currency pairs but due the very special situation we are observing I was compelled to begin trading the pair ...